Back from the Brink: Takaichi Returns the LDP to Dominance
By Marshall Reid
The results are in, and the message is clear: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has a mandate. After four frenetic, largely successful months at the helm of Japan’s venerable Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the country’s first female head of government scored a historic victory in the February 9 snap parliamentary election. With all precincts reporting, the party took control of 316 of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of parliament.
The result caps off a stunning turnaround for the LDP. The party’s decades-long grip on Japan’s political system appeared to be cracking just last year. Mired in scandals and assailed on all sides by upstart challengers, the LDP saw its poll numbers and voter support fall to record lows. Now, with the energetic, widely popular Takaichi at the helm, the party has reached a level of dominance not seen since World War II. The turnaround could have far-reaching implications for Japan and its international partners. With an unprecedented mandate and an ambitious agenda, Takaichi could be poised to leave an indelible mark on her country’s geopolitical future.
From the Ashes
Few could have foreseen in 2025 the LDP’s resurgence. The party whose leadership Takaichi assumed last October was at its lowest point in decades. Scandals, apathy and inflexibility had eroded its voter base and spurred the rise of insurgent parties on both sides of the political spectrum. Takaichi provided the shot in the arm that the LDP needed. A conservative firebrand known for her tireless work ethic and incendiary rhetoric, she represented a stark departure from her staid predecessors. The new prime minister began her tenure with a flurry of speeches and international engagements, including a well-received visit from U.S. President Donald Trump. She also courted controversy by describing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as an “existential threat” to Japan, drawing fierce criticism from Beijing. Those moves burnished Takaichi’s reputation as a strong and fearless leader. Her approval rating vaulted to nearly 70% within three months of taking office.
Takaichi’s decision to call the election, despite her surging popularity, was widely seen as a calculated risk. While most within the LDP assumed that the party would, at a minimum, regain a parliamentary majority, few expected the overwhelming victory that emerged. The result was an astounding gain of 125 seats, the largest electoral success in modern Japanese history. With the Japan Innovation Party, or Ishin, the LDP-led government coalition now controls approximately three-quarters of the seats in the lower house. This supermajority will allow the LDP to override vetoes in the upper house and give Takaichi a free hand in dictating domestic and international policy for the foreseeable future. After a tumultuous few years, the LDP dominates again.
A New Era
This election could prove to be an inflection point. Armed with a massive electoral mandate, Takaichi has an opportunity to transform Japan’s place in the world. She has long advocated a more proactive, forceful foreign policy, a departure from the country’s long-established conservatism. Like her mentor, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi envisions her country as a hub of regional activity and pillar of global stability. She will likely feel emboldened to pursue this vision by strengthening alliances and improving military capabilities. Few political barriers will stand in her way.
The Trump administration will undoubtedly welcome a more active Japan. Takaichi has long been a supporter of the U.S.-Japan alliance. She will presumably seek to use her victory to push through security policies that align with Trump’s, including increasing defense spending, reducing restrictions on arms exports, and expanding intelligence-sharing and interoperability with U.S. forces. The two leaders are already scheduled to meet in Washington in March, and enhancing the U.S.-Japan partnership will certainly top the agenda.
Takaichi has also pledged to broaden ties with a wide range of other international partners. The EU will likely be a major target of this outreach. Japan and the bloc already have a major trade agreement in place, but complementarities between the two have only grown since the deal went into effect in 2019. With transatlantic relations deteriorating and European states moving to diversify their global partnerships, Tokyo could emerge as a key beneficiary of these geopolitical shifts. Takaichi has also expressed interest in increasing collaboration with NATO, recognizing the growing links between North Atlantic and Indo-Pacific nations. If she can leverage her greatly enhanced power to achieve these objectives, she could push Japan into a new global prominence.